Better predicting
Predicting looks easier than it actually is. Of course, much depends on luck but at the end of the season, the first ones are mostly the best ones. Predicting is not gambling!
The prediction behaviour of course highly depends on individual rules in the prediction community but some basics are to be followed.
With a little tips and tricks, one can maximize his scorecast points:
Advice 1: Predict more home wins
Home wins are the most common ones in football leagues. The 12th man has indeed a role to play. Statistically, the home advantage reads: In the Bundesliga, there is between 43% and 49% of home wins. Predicting the home team cannot be that bad.
Advice 2: Tied matchs mainly end-up 1:1
A draw has a close to 50% chance of ending up as 1:1. If you decice to predict a tie, you may want to choose 1:1. This will increase chances for a good result.
Advice 3: Home win with a one goal difference
Home wins end up with a one goal difference in 40% of the matches. A 2:0 prediction is riskier than a 2:1, even if a 2:0 is also a pretty common end result but with only a 27% chance. A goal difference of 1 corresponds to 45%.
Advice 4: Trust the favourite more often
Many predict in a too risky way. They always hope a for a sensational underdog win. Of course you can put in a risky prediction from time to time but a good choice has to be made. Predicting the favourite team while it loses makes you lose points, but most of the others will too. It is all about finding the right balance.
Advice 5: Current form
Most of the time, a look in the tables helps to decide who is the favourite and who is the challenger. Sometimes, a look in the last 6-8 matchdays ranking is better. On Kicktipp the table view can be filtered accordingly. Another look at the home and away rankings may also give some valuable input.
Statistics 1. Bundesliga
Finally some stats from the last five seasons.
| Share | |
|---|---|
| Home win | 46% |
| Draw | 24% |
| Away win | 30% |
| Share | |
|---|---|
| 1:1 | 46% |
| 0:0 | 26% |
| 2:2 | 23% |
| Other | 5% |
| Share | |
|---|---|
| 2:1 | 21% |
| 1:0 | 19% |
| 2:0 | 16% |
| 3:0 | 11% |
| 3:1 | 9% |
| 3:2 | 5% |
| 4:1 | 5% |
| 4:0 | 4% |
| 5:1 | 2% |
| 4:2 | 2% |
| 5:0 | 1% |
| 5:2 | 1% |
| Other | 3% |
| Share | |
|---|---|
| 1:2 | 23% |
| 0:1 | 21% |
| 0:2 | 18% |
| 1:3 | 11% |
| 2:3 | 9% |
| 0:3 | 7% |
| 2:4 | 3% |
| 1:4 | 3% |
| Other | 5% |
| Share | |
|---|---|
| 1 | 47% |
| 2 | 27% |
| 3 | 18% |
| 4 | 6% |
| 5 | 2% |
| Other | 1% |
| Share | |
|---|---|
| 1 | 53% |
| 2 | 33% |
| 3 | 11% |
| Other | 4% |